Regulatory and fiscal stability herald bright future for investment in Alaska
There is a renaissance underway on the North Slope driven primarily by two huge projects – Santos’ and Eni’s Pikka development and ConocoPhillips’ Willow. Together, these two, new oil fields will increase production to levels not seen in in two decades.
Despite the challenges that come with operating in the Arctic – high costs, harsh weather, supply chain issues, legal hurdles and fluctuating oil prices –Alaska can expect $22 billion in planned oil and gas industry investment between 2025 and 2030, according to a petroleum economics study by Anchorage-based McKinley Research.
“By 2034, more than 60% of North Slope production will come from fields that, today, have yet to put a single drop into the Trans Alaska Pipeline System,” the study found.
We cannot control many of the challenges Arctic operations bring, but we can maintain fair and stable tax policies that attract the capital needed to keep our resource industries healthy so they can produce jobs and revenues for Alaskans.
Let’s keep Alaska competitive!
What’s at stake
$4B
State & Local Revenue
FY25
70,425
Alaskan Jobs Supported
Direct/Indirect
$0.5B
Grow the Permanent Fund
FY22 Dedicated Revenues to Corpus
$5.8B
Spending with Local Businesses
Annual
Source: McKinley Research for AOGA
Stable tax policy leads to resource renaissance on the North Slope
Willow could be just the beginning.
While ConocoPhillips’ Willow project remains on schedule for first oil in early 2029, the company is already laying the groundwork to bring additional North Slope resources into the development’s infrastructure.
ConocoPhillips drilled four exploration wells in the NPR-A last winter, and the results were encouraging enough that the company has committed to bringing additional resources into Willow’s facilities.
The next exploration season is already taking shape. Federal permits have been submitted for winter 2027 drilling, while field surveys and preparations for ice roads are underway.
Combined with strong industry interest in the recent NPR-A lease sale, ConocoPhillips says these investments could position Willow’s infrastructure to support development “for decades into the future.”
That’s the bigger opportunity: infrastructure built for Willow could help unlock additional discoveries, support continued exploration and investment, create more opportunities for Alaska workers and businesses and ultimately send more Alaska oil through TAPS.
Major energy infrastructure isn’t just an investment in the next project. It can create opportunities for the projects that come after it.
READ MORE: www.petroleumnews.com/story/2026/08/16/news/conocophillips-lance-retiring-obrien-taking-helm-hot-...
A record-setting vote of confidence in Alaska’s energy future.
The latest federal oil and gas lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska generated more than $163 million in high bids, the largest lease sale in the NPR-A’s history.
The numbers tell the story:
- 11 companies submitted bids
- 187 tracts received bids
- More than 1.3 million acres attracted investment
- Alaska is expected to receive nearly $82 million through federal revenue sharing
It was the first federal NPR-A lease sale since 2019, and the record-breaking results demonstrate something important: companies are willing to compete — and invest significant capital — for the opportunity to develop Alaska’s resources.
And the benefits could extend well beyond the initial lease payments. Successful exploration and development can mean new private investment, jobs for Alaskans, revenue for state and local governments, stronger North Slope communities, increased domestic energy production and more oil flowing through TAPS.
A lease sale doesn’t guarantee a discovery. But attracting this level of investment is an important first step toward finding and developing the next generation of Alaska oil.
Keeping Alaska competitive keeps opportunities here at home.
One of the most familiar faces in the Alaska oil patch, Ryan Lance, has been inducted into the Alaska Oil and Gas Historical Society Hall of Fame.
A petroleum engineer by training, Lance has played an important role in shaping the future of Alaska’s oil and gas industry throughout his career. He began his Alaska career with ARCO in 1984 and went on to lead ConocoPhillips as CEO, keeping Alaska’s North Slope a strategic priority at a time when many major oil companies were stepping away from exploration in the state.
A Great Falls, Montana native, Lance earned a bachelor’s degree in petroleum engineering in 1984. He ultimately spent four decades with ConocoPhillips, rising to become CEO. He got his start in the industry from the ground up, helping put himself through college by working on oil rigs in Wyoming.
Lance spent 15 years in Alaska, where he helped lead development of Alpine, the anchor for ConocoPhillips’ expansion westward on the North Slope. He invested so much of himself in Alpine that he and his wife have referred to it as his “third child.”
“Ryan’s commitment to Alaska reflects a long-term vision - not only focused on developing today’s resources, but on creating opportunities for the future,” his Hall of Fame citation says. “Under Ryan’s leadership, ConocoPhillips continued investing in exploration, infrastructure, and field development across the Western North Slope. Those investments helped advance new discoveries, support continued production, and build the foundation for future development.”
Congratulations, Ryan, on this well-deserved recognition and your next chapter!
PHOTO CREDIT: ConocoPhillips Alaska
Letter from the co-chairs
Fair and Competitive oil taxes are working
There is a resurgence in oil production and jobs in Alaska that is directly related to our current oil tax policy. SB 21, a fair and competitive tax policy, replaced the antiquated ACES tax structure that drove down petroleum investment for more than a decade. Thanks to SB 21, Alaskans have the greatest opportunity of our generation on the North Slope today.
Some present and former legislators argue that SB 21 was a mistake, but the facts speak for themselves.
The Willow and Pikka projects, years in the making, are in active development, with Pikka now expecting first production any day now. These and other robust investments in Alaska’s future would not have occurred under the previous punitive tax regime. Between the Willow and Pikka projects alone, the oil and gas industry is spending over $10 billion in Alaska, with each project generating thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of operating jobs.
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