Regulatory and fiscal stability herald bright future for investment in Alaska
There is a renaissance underway on the North Slope driven primarily by two huge projects – Santos’ and Eni’s Pikka development and ConocoPhillips’ Willow. Together, these two, new oil fields will increase production to levels not seen in in two decades.
Despite the challenges that come with operating in the Arctic – high costs, harsh weather, supply chain issues, legal hurdles and fluctuating oil prices –Alaska can expect $22 billion in planned oil and gas industry investment between 2025 and 2030, according to a petroleum economics study by Anchorage-based McKinley Research.
“By 2034, more than 60% of North Slope production will come from fields that, today, have yet to put a single drop into the Trans Alaska Pipeline System,” the study found.
We cannot control many of the challenges Arctic operations bring, but we can maintain fair and stable tax policies that attract the capital needed to keep our resource industries healthy so they can produce jobs and revenues for Alaskans.
Let’s keep Alaska competitive!
What’s at stake
$4B
State & Local Revenue
FY25
70,425
Alaskan Jobs Supported
Direct/Indirect
$0.5B
Grow the Permanent Fund
FY22 Dedicated Revenues to Corpus
$5.8B
Spending with Local Businesses
Annual
Source: McKinley Research for AOGA
Stable tax policy leads to resource renaissance on the North Slope
There’s a whirlwind of activity underway on the North Slope.
The Alaska Department of Natural Resources’ Division recently released a new map showing active projects that stretch from Umiat to Narwhal, Willow to Point Thomson.
Here’s a summary of the major projects:
- ConocoPhillips Alaska proposes to construct new 15-acre drill-site CD8 that targets the Narwhal (Nanushuk) reservoir. Supporting infrastructure will be built and tied to the existing facilities at CD4 and the Alpine Central Facility. The U.S. Corps of Engineers is preparing an EIS for the project, with a draft EIS expected to be published in fall 2026.
- Oil Search Alaska (Santos company) planning to drill the Quokka-1 appraisal well, completion by Q2 2026.
- ConocoPhillips Alaska continues development of the Torok and Coyote participating areas at Kuparuk from the 3S and 3T pads.
- Hilcorp Alaska plans to lay down gravel for O pad, a potential new drill site in the PBU Western Satellites Participating Area in 2026. Final investment decision is targeted for 2026.
- Harvest Alaska LNG began plant operations last Oct. 9, producing LNG for delivery by road tanker to Fairbanks-based Interior Gas Utility.
- Lagniappe Alaska plans to drill appraisal wells and wildcats around Sockeye-2 in early 2027.
- Great Bear Pantheon completed fracture stimulation operations at the Dubhe-1 exploration well horizontally through 5,200 feet of SMD-B target reservoir. Flow testing is paused and scheduled to resume in Spring 2026.
- Hilcorp Alaska is drilling a gas and condensate production well at a new Point Thomson drill site in 2026. This well is expected to increase Point Thomson production to near 10,000 BPD.
- Santos/Oil Search has finished construction of 120 miles of pipeline, secured processing modules and the seawater treatment plant to the site and completed more than 20 wells as part of Pikka Phase 1. First oil is scheduled for Q1 2026.
And, there’s more. You can download the map here:
dog.dnr.alaska.gov/Document/Download/D13A72E9B6D941D3ACAC3FF0F4F12CA3/North%20Slope%20Activity%20....
There were plenty of smiles Wednesday when the Interior Department’s Bureau of Land Management finished its largest lease sale to date in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A).
Kevin Pendergast, state director for the Bureau of Land Management in Alaska, called the sale “historic” after receiving 430 bids on 1,334,967 acres. The sale raised a record $163 million in revenue, 50% of which will go to the state.
“This is the strongest sale we have ever had in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska by nearly every measure,” he said. “It makes clear that for the NPR-A, despite all the successes to date, the best days are still ahead.”
More than 10 companies participated, including ConocoPhillips Alaska, a team that included Repsol and Shell Frontier Oil and Gas (a subsidiary of Shell), ExxonMobil Alaska and Oil Search (Santos). One of the most active bidders was North Slope Exploration LLC, a company associated with Colorado-based independent oilman Bill Armstrong of Armstrong Energy LLC., considered one of the world’s most successful wildcatters who discovered the Pikka field.
Here are some highlights of the day:
- BLM called it historic — the best day yet for NPR-A
- Repsol/Shell Frontier spent the most — $62.5 million
- ConocoPhillips Alaska very active bidder, picked up 30 new tracts
- Most active bidder was North Slope Exploration
- Most surprising bidder Hex Cook Inlet
- ExxonMobil Alaska also bid often and won 20 tracts
- High bid of the day was $3,649,920 and won 20 tracts
- High bid of the day was $3,649,920
You can read more here: www.adn.com/businesseconomy/energy/2026/03/18/national-petroleum-reserve-alaska-oil-lease-sale-ra....
ConocoPhillips Alaska chalked up some BIG numbers in 2025.
The company incurred an estimated $1.3 billion in taxes and royalties last year, including $1 billion to the State of Alaska and nearly $300 million to the federal government. ConocoPhillips Alaska reported a net income of $730 million for the year.
"ConocoPhillips Alaska delivered another strong year in 2025 as we continued to advance our Alaska portfolio," stated Erec Isaacson, President of ConocoPhillips Alaska. “Progress continues on the Willow project, which will achieve nearly 50% completion during this winter season and remains on track for first oil in early 2029. More than 2,400 jobs were filled to progress Willow critical scope in 2025, which included the construction of two bridges, installation of 72 miles of pipeline, and beginning of year-round Willow camp occupancy.
“We also sanctioned our Coyote major project located in the Kuparuk River Unit, which will include a pad expansion, pipeline installation, and a 19-well drilling program.
"We have invested more than $3.6 billion in Alaska projects in 2025, demonstrating our confidence in Alaska’s resource base and the value of a stable and competitive fiscal regime," Isaacson stated.
Since 2007, ConocoPhillips Alaska has incurred approximately $47 billion in taxes and royalties to the State of Alaska and the federal government. Of that amount, about $37 billion went directly to the state. In that same period, ConocoPhillips Alaska’s earnings were approximately $29 billion, according to a company press release.
Letter from the co-chairs
Fair and Competitive oil taxes are working
There is a resurgence in oil production and jobs in Alaska that is directly related to our current oil tax policy. SB 21, a fair and competitive tax policy, replaced the antiquated ACES tax structure that drove down petroleum investment for more than a decade. Thanks to SB 21, Alaskans have the greatest opportunity of our generation on the North Slope today.
Some present and former legislators argue that SB 21 was a mistake, but the facts speak for themselves.
The Willow and Pikka projects, years in the making, are in active development, with Pikka now expecting first production any day now. These and other robust investments in Alaska’s future would not have occurred under the previous punitive tax regime. Between the Willow and Pikka projects alone, the oil and gas industry is spending over $10 billion in Alaska, with each project generating thousands of construction jobs and hundreds of operating jobs.
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