Oil forecast gives Alaska reason for hope
The state released its latest production forecast that found the industry was able to hold North Slope production decline to ~1% despite the enormous challenges of the pandemic and the collapse of oil prices. The new energy introduced by Hilcorp was a major driver in holding production steady compared to historic rates of 4-5%.
Six developments either underway or in advanced planning have the potential to add hundreds of thousands barrels/day of new oil through the pipeline.

Slow recovery after pandemic-related loss of 27,200
Alaska shed 27,200 jobs last year, dropping employment to 2003 levels, according to the state. “Before the pandemic, Alaska had weathered a long statewide recession followed by a single year of weak growth. Absent another shock, we’ll recover some of the lost jobs this year — we forecast a gain of about 8,600 — but it will likely take several years to regain 2019’s job levels,” the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development reported in Alaska Economic Trends.
“Government and oil will continue to cut jobs in the short term, but all other industries will hold steady or begin to rebound. The industries likely to grow the most in 2021 will be those that suffered the steepest losses in 2020. “
You can find the entire report here.


Dear KEEP Supporter,
Once again, Alaskans voted firmly for fairness when they soundly defeated Ballot Measure 1 by a vote of 57.9% no to 42.1% yes last November.
The Ballot Measure 1 outcome is hopeful, but the fact remains that Alaska is facing unprecedented challenges both at a state and federal level. At home, we find ourselves at a critical juncture where Alaska must get its fiscal house in order or face an uncertain and grim future for our children and grandchildren. In Washington, D.C., the executive orders and proposed legislation by the Biden administration and the Democrat controlled Congress add further uncertainty to an already challenging investment climate in Alaska.
Alaskans know a healthy oil and gas industry and a sustainable fiscal plan are critical to our economic future. When the Anchorage Economic Development Corporation recently asked Anchorage businesses to rate the importance of various issues to the Anchorage economy, the sustainability of the State of Alaska operating budget and ending the spread of COVID-19 received the most “very important” ratings at 79%, followed by North Slope oil production (71%).
Yet even though Alaskans spoke loud and clear just months ago, there are new calls for new taxes on our most important industry. To help this industry regain its full health, KEEP supporters must remain vigilant and continue our grassroots effort to advocate for stable oil tax policy and a sustainable fiscal plan.
Despite the ravages of Covid-19 and collapse of the oil market, there are encouraging signs on the horizon. Oil prices have leveled at a point where the economics could allow several major projects (which could potentially add up to 300,000 barrels/day to the pipeline) to move forward. The production decline was held at ~1% last year, primarily due to Hilcorp’s optimization efforts at Prudhoe Bay and Milne Point. That alone was an incredible accomplishment, particularly given the restrictions of Covid-19.
KEEP Alaska Competitive has always advocated for a fiscal solution that is fair to all residents and all industries and does not single out any one industry, particularly oil and gas. We hope you will join us once again as we work together to find this solution and secure a brighter future for Alaska.
Sincerely,
Jim Jansen
Co-chair
Keep Alaska Competitive
Joe Schierhorn
Co-chair
Keep Alaska Competitive
AEDC remains cautiously optimistic for slow recovery
Anchorage entered 2020 with an expectation that the four-year slide in employment, totaling 6,000 lost jobs, would finally come to an end, according to the Anchorage Economic Development Corp. (AEDC). “AEDC’s outlook was for 100 new jobs in 2020, essentially a flat forecast for an economy supporting 150,000 jobs. COVID-19 laid waste to the modest hope that the Anchorage economy would be stable (or even grow) in 2020.
“Entering 2021, economic recovery will depend on the degree to which further spread of COVID-19 can be contained and the pace of community vaccination. If the pace is slow, due to limited vaccine availability or limited acceptance, or both, recovery will be delayed. If rates of infection remain low and most of the population is vaccinated by mid-year, many of the jobs lost in 2020 could be restored in 2021.”
The AEDC 2021 Economic Forecast is here.
About KEEP
KEEP Alaska Competitive is a 501(c)(6) organization composed of individual Alaskans, Alaska Native organizations, businesses and labor groups who care deeply about our long-term economic future. We do not take contributions from oil producers.
Paid by KEEP Alaska Competitive, PO Box 220884, Anchorage, AK 99522